A large body of research suggests that failure to address uncertainty and strategic risk, together with over-optimism and over-confidence in cost and schedule estimates are the main factors in poor project performance.

Cost model framing workshop: Delphi method structured communication process supports knowledge gathering while challenging bias. The workshop includes a preparatory coaching session and together they uncover and address “institutionalised errors” in the way that probabilistic cost models are built and used. Basis for probabilistic model is agreed, understood and documented.

Modelling for cost estimate certainty: recognises complexity. Multivariate analysis takes account of correlations and dependencies. Modelling looks beyond “most likely value” to consider value at risk – key to investment decisions and understanding liabilities.

Our combined approach is applicable to any probabilistic forecasting exercise.